Read onlineLeon Hadar, Cato Institute, 9 June 2010
In the midst of a flurry of policy briefs and commentaries on the Gaza flotilla crisis and the new regional order it heralds, Hadar's article is a refreshing reality check for the most part. Warning academics and journalists to avoid the "broad brush" when hastily painting new narratives to explain current events, he gives some needed background on Turkey's relations with Israel and its overall role in the region, debunking the widespread idea that Turkey is an Islamic fundamentalist regime aimed at rebuilding the Ottoman Empire. He also points out the hypocrisy of some US policymakers who are now fear mongering about the AKP and Turkey after praising them for the past eight years.
Hadar concludes:
This last sentence is certainly true. But I don't see a huge risk for this issue-based conflict to evolve into an identity one, much less anything on the "civilizational scale." While Turkish public opinion is outspokenly opposed to the policies and actions of the Israeli government, it seems to stop there: there is little new support for anti-Semitic sentiments or movements against the existence of Israel, though their existing supporters may have grown louder....The current crisis also demonstrated the need on the part of the Israelis and the Turks to refrain from turning these policy disagreements into a wide-ranging "civilizational" conflict. Israel needs to recognize and support Turkey's determination to play a more activist diplomatic role and take advantage of it and refrain from trying to demonize Turkey as an Islamofascist entity. At the end of the day, Israel has more at stake than Turkey in repairing the bilateral relations between Ankara and Jerusalem.
I'm not sure where Hadar is getting this 'New Middle East' concept or who has been pushing that particular narrative, but it sounds much more American than Turkish to me. And who are these "new fans" of Turkey supposed to be? I don't know about them, but according to the polls of the PewResearchCenter, Turks are more likely to say that their country is disliked around the world than to say it's liked -- in fact, they are the only nationality besides Americans to do so. While nationalism is alive and well in Turkey, so is disillusionment and pragmatism; Hadar's warnings about the nation's limitations would not fall on deaf or naive ears.At the same time, Erdogan and the AKP should understand that that Turkey does not have the capability to serve as an all powerful regional hegemon, and that any attempt to move in that direction will ignite anti-Turkey backlash from regional and global players. In any case, trying to serve as a mediator between the Israelis and the Arabs could prove to be a difficult and thankless job — if not a mission impossible — as the Americans and other powers have already discovered, and that trying to compensate for their diplomatic weakness by displaying Islamist bravado could backfire against the Turks and will certainly not accelerate the establishment of a New Middle East anytime soon. In short, Turkey is not as threatening as its detractors warn nor as powerful as many Turks and their new fans believe.
